A friend from high school was sure to become a raging success. Everyone knew he would become a dominant force in the world. But he has floundered, barely surviving for his entire adult life.
He was convinced that the world would soon end, so has been stockpiling supplies for 30 years. He became too focused on downside risk, the negative possibilities. He spent so much effort preparing for the possibility that the world economy would crash, that he was unable to build any sort of career.
He was crushed by upside risk. He ignored the possibility that new technology might create a new online economy and the possibility that zombies might NOT be real and the possibility that the Federal Reserve might NOT enslave us all. He focused on those downside risks. He missed all opportunities to prosper.
Downside risks exist. Global warming might swamp beachfronts in 200 years. The Illuminati might be a real force for destroying personal liberties (sounds implausible, but I am open). Bankrupt governments (i.e. almost every developed country) might act rashly to deflect criticism from voters. A gigantic meteor might hit the earth.
But good stuff might also happen.
My friend can make shoes from leather he has made. He can defend it all from marauders with his arsenal of weapons. But the bank might take his house, self-sufficient farm, even his leather tanning equipment, because he can’t make loan payments. He failed to prepare for a career and missed so many opportunities. He ignored upside risk, the risk of positive outcomes so he could not exploit those outcomes.
What are you doing to actively prepare for a POSITIVE future?